Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2035 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 2035 ORD 06:56 → TYS 09:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 795 ORD 18:00 → TYS 20:40 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2035 United	ORD 06:56	TYS 09:36	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	ORD 08:32	TYS 11:23	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 13:41	TYS 16:29	22%	8%	2.5%	no record
OO 5719 SkyWest	ORD 14:37	TYS 17:33	34%	12%	4.0%	no record
MQ 3699 Envoy	ORD 19:53	TYS 22:35	38%	15%	3.2%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	ORD 16:52	TYS 19:33	45%	18%	7.4%	no record
UA 795 United	ORD 18:00	TYS 20:40	47%	24%	1.3%	no record
UA 4551 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	TYS 09:43	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON