Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 59m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	6h 15m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:30 → ATL 16:40DL 2894	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	7h 19m	97%	75%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	6h 28m	97%	75%
American Details →	ORD 16:43 → MIA 21:07AA 2323	2h 03m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	83%	61%
American Details →	ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	6h 13m	90%	61%
American Details →	ORD 11:01 → DFW 13:34AA 1106	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	7h 37m	96%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 15:10 → DFW 17:48AA 2429	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:05 → VPS 21:05AA 1201	5h 55m	70%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON