Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3595 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 3595 ORD 06:43 → XNA 08:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G7 4428 ORD 21:43 → XNA 23:11 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:43	XNA 08:34	10%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:41	XNA 13:34	21%	6%	1.5%	78%
G7 4498 GoJet	ORD 08:40	XNA 10:30	21%	4%	1.5%	no record
G7 4601 GoJet	ORD 12:46	XNA 14:35	30%	8%	2.4%	no record
AA 3941 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:32	XNA 00:27	33%	11%	2.3%	87%worse than usual
MQ 3660 Envoy	ORD 17:14	XNA 19:15	38%	16%	4.8%	no record
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:00	XNA 20:54	43%	16%	2.2%	96%worse than usual
G7 4399 GoJet	ORD 16:17	XNA 18:09	44%	15%	9.3%	no record
G7 4428 GoJet	ORD 21:43	XNA 23:11	50%	10%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON