Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2966 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2966 ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1346 ORF 19:59 → ATL 21:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2966 Delta Flight history →	ORF 05:15	ATL 06:54	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ORF 10:16	ATL 12:05	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1364 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:20	ATL 08:11	9%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 1338 Delta Flight history →	ORF 08:00	ATL 09:49	11%	4%	0.8%	90%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ORF 12:33	ATL 14:18	16%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ORF 13:50	ATL 15:44	17%	3%	0.8%	85%
F9 3071 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 12:10	ATL 14:08	21%	9%	1.1%	78%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ORF 16:43	ATL 18:34	25%	6%	1.0%	67%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ORF 19:59	ATL 21:59	26%	6%	0.9%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON