tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4819 at 11:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4819 Southwest ORF 11:25 BNA 12:29 12% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 4982 Southwest ORF 19:45 BNA 20:49 28% 8% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 26m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 10m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:50AA 1320 5h 27m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:17 → CLT 06:42AA 3130 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → BNA 09:44AA 3328 5h 27m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:01 → JFK 08:21DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor 3h 18m New York JFK 11:39 → BNA 13:03DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 7h 02m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 07:06AA 5520 · flown by PSA 1h 41m Washington DCA 08:47 → BNA 10:01AA 5085 · flown by PSA 5h 01m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 47m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 09m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 19:59 → ATL 21:59DL 1346 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 4h 16m 75% 57%
AmericanDetails → ORF 18:59 → DFW 21:33AA 2288 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:42 → BNA 00:39 +1AA 2979 6h 40m 74% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON