Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3130 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3130 ORF 05:17 → CLT 06:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2519 ORF 20:04 → CLT 21:28 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3130 American Flight history →	ORF 05:17	CLT 06:42	8%	4%	1.1%	85%
AA 5036 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:46	CLT 08:20	13%	6%	1.6%	84%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	ORF 09:06	CLT 10:30	16%	5%	1.3%	86%
OH 5659 PSA	ORF 11:04	CLT 12:34	16%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 1211 American Flight history →	ORF 15:06	CLT 16:34	23%	5%	1.1%	90%worse than usual
AA 2200 American Flight history →	ORF 13:50	CLT 15:15	23%	5%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 2651 American	ORF 18:11	CLT 19:35	37%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	ORF 20:04	CLT 21:28	37%	8%	1.2%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON