Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5520 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 5520 ORF 06:00 → DCA 07:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5601 ORF 17:52 → DCA 19:19 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5520 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:00	DCA 07:06	9%	5%	1.5%	92%
AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 11:24	DCA 12:34	26%	9%	1.7%	70%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 17:52	DCA 19:19	32%	15%	4.4%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON