Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Charlotte, leaving 05:17, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2270 United Flight history →	ORF 08:00	DEN 10:00	14%	4%	0.8%	85%
WN 2446 Southwest	ORF 11:30	DEN 13:31	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 50m	98%	83%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	1h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 09:31 → DEN 11:29AA 1313	7h 06m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 00m	98%	78%
American Details →	ORF 07:11 → PHL 08:27AA 5271 · flown by PSA	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 11:23 → DEN 13:25AA 2082	8h 14m	96%	78%
American Details →	ORF 05:17 → CLT 06:42AA 3130	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 09:35 → DEN 11:11AA 2859	7h 54m	94%	78%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 11:56 → DEN 13:36AA 1662	8h 50m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:22 → MSP 09:29DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	6h 43m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 42m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 19:59 → ATL 21:59DL 1346	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	6h 24m	74%	53%
American Details →	ORF 20:04 → CLT 21:28AA 2519	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 22:48 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1659	6h 13m	70%	47%
Delta Details →	ORF 16:43 → ATL 18:34DL 1101	51m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	6h 00m	69%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON