Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1079 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1079 ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 3737 ORF 17:16 → DTW 19:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1079 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:05	DTW 07:55	6%	4%	0.8%	91%
DL 3066 Delta	ORF 12:49	DTW 14:46	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 3737 SkyWest	ORF 17:16	DTW 19:15	19%	10%	0.9%	no record
DL 4653 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:37	DTW 14:43	40%	23%	2.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON