Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4531 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 20:15	EWR 21:54	42%	42%	7.7%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	5h 14m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 51m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 01m	98%	81%
American Details →	ORF 05:17 → CLT 06:42AA 3130	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 07:59 → EWR 09:50AA 1707	4h 33m	94%	79%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	2h 10m Charlotte	CLT 10:30 → EWR 12:21AA 1697	5h 35m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 16m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 08m	93%	67%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	7h 04m	97%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON