Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1799 at 07:20, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1799 JetBlue Flight history →	ORF 07:20	FLL 09:40	22%	9%	1.2%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59DL 1094	4h 44m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	7h 00m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:24 → LGA 07:51DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor	3h 04m New York	LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181	7h 30m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:43 → FLL 14:39DL 1341	6h 39m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:01 → JFK 08:21DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	2h 53m New York	JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305	7h 23m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413	5h 25m	98%	70%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	3h 54m Philadelphia	PHL 11:34 → FLL 14:19AA 1465	7h 56m	98%	69%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 10:59 → FLL 13:01AA 2585	6h 15m	93%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 19:59 → ATL 21:59DL 1346	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	4h 40m	63%	42%
American Details →	ORF 20:04 → CLT 21:28AA 2519	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → FLL 00:47 +1AA 321	4h 43m	63%	41%
Delta Details →	ORF 14:16 → LGA 15:43DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 16:30 → FLL 19:56DL 2321	5h 40m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON