tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Philadelphia, leaving 06:23, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 3h 02m Philadelphia PHL 10:42 → IAH 13:19AA 836 7h 56m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 59m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 33m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 14:43 → IAH 15:54DL 1223 6h 38m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:04 → LGA 07:32DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor 3h 18m New York LGA 10:50 → IAH 13:32DL 2099 8h 28m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORF 08:00 → DEN 10:00UA 2270 1h 34m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 91% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:06 → CLT 16:34AA 1211 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935 6h 27m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → ORF 09:06 → CLT 10:30AA 2072 1h 52m Charlotte CLT 12:22 → IAH 14:05AA 398 5h 59m 93% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 15:57 → IAH 18:03DL 1718 6h 26m 70% 53%
DeltaDetails → ORF 19:59 → ATL 21:59DL 1346 49m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 4h 58m 67% 50%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:22 → DFW 17:47AA 2282 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 32m 62% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON