Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4693 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4693 ORF 05:55 → LGA 07:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 4358 ORF 15:30 → LGA 17:16 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4693 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 05:55	LGA 07:29	4%	3%	1.7%	86%
AA 4621 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:22	LGA 12:56	18%	6%	2.4%	68%
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 15:30	LGA 17:16	21%	9%	2.2%	73%
DL 5334 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 06:04	LGA 07:30	17%	8%	4.9%	83%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 10:20	LGA 11:55	25%	16%	7.0%	75%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 14:44	LGA 16:21	39%	19%	17.8%	61%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:21	LGA 20:56	63%	24%	19.2%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON