Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2662 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2662 Southwest	ORF 08:00	MDW 09:20	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1100 Southwest	ORF 19:25	MDW 20:48	37%	9%	3.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 36m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 50m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 59m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 09m	90%	67%
Delta Details →	ORF 16:43 → ATL 18:34DL 1101	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 32m	91%	66%
Frontier Details →	ORF 12:10 → ATL 14:08F9 3071	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → MDW 18:13F9 2779	7h 03m	96%	55%
Delta Details →	ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 52m	94%	54%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:22 → MSP 09:29DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 47m	92%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON