tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 756 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 756 American Flight history → ORF 06:00 MIA 08:24 13% 5% 1.2% 90%
MQ 3799 Envoy ORF 17:06 MIA 19:43 46% 15% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 42m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 23m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 07:06AA 5520 · flown by PSA 1h 14m Washington DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422 5h 17m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 47m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:55 → LGA 07:29AA 4693 · flown by Republic 1h 59m New York LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211 6h 50m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:17 → CLT 06:42AA 3130 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 09:01 → MIA 11:02AA 3184 5h 45m 94% 65%
DeltaDetails → ORF 16:43 → ATL 18:34DL 1101 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 6h 56m 92% 61%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 25m 93% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 20:04 → CLT 21:28AA 2519 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068 4h 44m 70% 41%
DeltaDetails → ORF 17:40 → JFK 19:00DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor 55m New York JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428 5h 57m 63% 41%
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:49 → EWR 19:19UA 4575 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Newark EWR 20:21 → MIA 23:14UA 791 5h 25m 55% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON