Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5464 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 07:22	MSP 09:29	15%	10%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 49m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	6h 03m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 10m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 50m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:00 → JFK 08:20DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	3h 15m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 50m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 50m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:04 → LGA 07:32DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor	3h 38m New York	LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409	8h 06m	96%	79%
American Details →	ORF 05:17 → CLT 06:42AA 3130	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 07:50 → MSP 09:32AA 2972	5h 15m	92%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 6122 · flown by Piedmont	50m Philadelphia	PHL 12:59 → MSP 14:57AA 3294	5h 03m	73%	61%
Delta Details →	ORF 19:59 → ATL 21:59DL 1346	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	5h 40m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON