Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4528 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–49%.

Safest bet that day YX 4528 ORF 06:13 → ORD 07:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1251 ORF 16:56 → ORD 18:13 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4528 Republic	ORF 06:13	ORD 07:35	10%	5%	0.9%	no record
YX 3668 Republic	ORF 06:18	ORD 07:44	10%	5%	0.9%	no record
YX 4448 Republic	ORF 12:12	ORD 13:44	24%	10%	2.0%	no record
YX 3674 Republic	ORF 13:00	ORD 14:26	29%	9%	2.1%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORF 19:02	ORD 20:48	48%	19%	4.5%	72%worse than usual
UA 1251 United	ORF 16:56	ORD 18:13	49%	19%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON