Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5088 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 5088 ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest PT 6055 ORF 17:45 → PHL 19:11 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5088 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:23	PHL 07:40	14%	7%	1.3%	85%
AA 5271 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 07:11	PHL 08:27	14%	7%	1.3%	76%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ORF 10:47	PHL 12:06	21%	5%	1.7%	78%
PT 6046 Piedmont	ORF 13:00	PHL 14:19	27%	9%	1.9%	no record
PT 5949 Piedmont	ORF 15:23	PHL 16:51	31%	10%	2.0%	no record
PT 6055 Piedmont	ORF 17:45	PHL 19:11	36%	12%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON