tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 08:13 → SJU 11:53DL 1930 6h 38m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:11DL 1364 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 12m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 45m Philadelphia PHL 09:25 → SJU 13:19AA 614 6h 56m 94% 71%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 39m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → MIA 08:24AA 756 2h 47m Miami MIA 11:11 → SJU 13:58AA 1613 7h 58m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 04m 93% 66%
UnitedDetails → ORF 05:57 → IAH 08:25UA 6331 · flown by Mesa 1h 38m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 45m 95% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON