Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2855 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2855 MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 369 MCO 19:59 → SFO 22:37 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2855 United Flight history →	MCO 08:09	SFO 10:53	11%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 2802 United	MCO 09:57	SFO 12:36	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2620 United Flight history →	MCO 19:03	SFO 21:50	34%	11%	0.8%	70%
AS 369 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:59	SFO 22:37	35%	11%	1.0%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 15m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 50m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504	1h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 27m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON