Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2770 MCO 18:30 → LAX 20:37 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	8%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 325 United	MCO 08:58	LAX 11:07	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	15%	4%	0.9%	92%
AA 1928 American Flight history →	MCO 07:12	LAX 09:25	19%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 644 Delta	MCO 19:06	LAX 21:13	27%	11%	1.2%	no record
DL 1051 Delta	MCO 17:16	LAX 19:23	27%	12%	1.1%	no record
UA 1316 United	MCO 15:09	LAX 17:40	31%	12%	1.0%	no record
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:43	LAX 18:10	35%	17%	1.9%	80%worse than usual
WN 2770 Southwest	MCO 18:30	LAX 20:37	42%	14%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 23m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	96%	79%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:45 → ONT 10:04F9 2907	7h 29m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON