Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–52%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2984 MCO 16:57 → JFK 19:36 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	4%	2%	1.1%	93%
UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:54	EWR 08:43	5%	2%	1.1%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	6%	2%	1.1%	95%
DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	7%	3%	1.4%	91%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	9%	4%	1.0%	88%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	11%	4%	1.2%	91%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:02	JFK 08:42	11%	4%	1.1%	53%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	17%	6%	1.5%	84%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:29	EWR 13:10	18%	8%	1.2%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:51	EWR 12:33	19%	6%	1.4%	81%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	22%	7%	1.1%	82%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	23%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:04	LGA 13:45	24%	9%	1.5%	no record
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:56	LGA 16:31	26%	9%	1.5%	76%
UA 1330 United	MCO 11:50	EWR 14:44	27%	10%	1.4%	no record
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:14	EWR 01:00	30%	12%	1.8%	90%worse than usual
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:56	EWR 15:46	31%	11%	1.4%	no record
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:02	LGA 22:36	31%	11%	1.6%	no record
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	33%	14%	1.7%	74%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	34%	12%	2.1%	72%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:06	JFK 14:45	34%	12%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:24	LGA 15:03	35%	13%	1.6%	78%worse than usual
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:57	JFK 22:31	35%	15%	1.5%	56%
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:19	EWR 22:13	37%	15%	1.5%	no record
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	37%	17%	1.6%	63%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	40%	18%	1.5%	74%worse than usual
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:20	LGA 21:17	41%	14%	1.5%	41%
B6 2128 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:02	EWR 23:43	42%	17%	1.9%	45%
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:32	EWR 20:28	42%	22%	1.5%	71%worse than usual
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:08	EWR 23:48	43%	18%	1.9%	53%
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:12	EWR 21:08	43%	19%	1.5%	no record
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:31	LGA 17:10	43%	20%	1.6%	73%worse than usual
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:51	JFK 21:30	46%	20%	1.8%	91%worse than usual
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	47%	20%	1.7%	45%
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	48%	20%	1.7%	60%
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:57	JFK 19:36	52%	23%	1.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON