Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2894 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1635 MCO 15:50 → MIA 17:03 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	7%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	13%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 548 American	MCO 08:51	MIA 10:04	18%	5%	3.5%	no record
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	21%	6%	2.1%	88%
WN 1923 Southwest	MCO 10:45	MIA 11:55	26%	6%	3.1%	no record
AA 366 American	MCO 11:11	MIA 12:24	27%	9%	3.2%	no record
WN 2717 Southwest	MCO 10:45	FLL 11:58	27%	7%	4.0%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	32%	11%	4.6%	80%worse than usual
WN 370 Southwest	MCO 22:55	MIA 00:06	35%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 3049 Southwest	MCO 22:25	FLL 23:38	36%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 1642 American Flight history →	MCO 20:23	MIA 21:36	42%	18%	2.0%	66%
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	44%	21%	2.2%	65%
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:24	MIA 20:37	46%	17%	1.7%	no record
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:50	MIA 17:03	54%	19%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON