Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2365 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PAE 12:33	PDX 13:34	12%	4%	4.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 09:44 → LAX 12:33AS 2278 · flown by Horizon	1h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315	7h 03m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:57 → SNA 10:48AS 2270 · flown by Horizon	3h 28m Santa Ana	SNA 14:16 → PDX 16:48AS 588	8h 51m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:00 → SAN 10:53AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	3h 10m San Diego	SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402	8h 36m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:00 → PHX 09:54AS 747	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 10:57 → PDX 13:50AS 511	6h 50m	86%	71%
Alaska Details →	PAE 14:52 → PHX 17:50AS 515	3h 04m Phoenix	PHX 20:54 → PDX 23:44AS 512	8h 52m	97%	66%
Alaska Details →	PAE 10:44 → LAS 13:15AS 777	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 16:00 → PDX 18:22AS 752	7h 38m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	1h 46m San Francisco	SFO 15:02 → PDX 16:47AS 1302	5h 42m	83%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON