Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 662 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 662 PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 539 PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:19 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 662 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:35	ATL 14:14	7%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 2060 Delta	PDX 23:07	ATL 06:55	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 784 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:30	ATL 15:15	15%	3%	0.8%	79%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	PDX 14:08	ATL 21:59	16%	6%	0.8%	85%
DL 539 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:37	ATL 19:19	17%	5%	0.8%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 54m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	92%	68%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:25UA 2375	1h 01m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 40m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON