tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 540 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 AUS 16:38 19% 4% 0.8% 86%
AS 1370 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:39 AUS 23:49 22% 5% 0.9% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55DL 3950 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 25m San Francisco SFO 08:26 → AUS 14:02UA 1107 6h 47m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 34m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 1h 24m Houston IAH 07:40 → AUS 08:54UA 2376 6h 46m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 15:10 → AUS 18:04DL 2687 10h 04m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 14:53UA 751 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332 9h 17m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:18 → IAD 16:08UA 2016 1h 52m Dulles IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337 10h 17m 95% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON