Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	BNA 17:00	20%	4%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	6h 25m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 52m	99%	82%
United Details →	PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780	1h 24m Houston	IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174	7h 39m	92%	80%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 01m Denver	DEN 09:32 → BNA 13:08UA 355	6h 08m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 01m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:19DL 539	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	9h 38m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00DL 2947	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 12:15 → BNA 18:24DL 449	9h 54m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	6h 41m	94%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	6h 24m	65%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON