Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3407 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day OO 3407 PDX 07:04 → BOI 09:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1361 PDX 17:54 → BOI 20:16 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3407 SkyWest	PDX 07:04	BOI 09:31	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 329 Alaska	PDX 10:45	BOI 13:07	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 342 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:58	BOI 17:16	17%	5%	0.7%	87%
AS 447 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:39	BOI 00:01	18%	5%	0.9%	87%
AS 1361 Alaska	PDX 17:54	BOI 20:16	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 2161 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:00	BOI 09:19	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2089 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:30	BOI 12:49	4%	1%	0.0%	96%
AS 2104 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:31	BOI 19:48	29%	10%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON