Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 1322 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day AS 1322 PDX 07:01 → BUR 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 559 PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1322 Alaska	PDX 07:01	BUR 09:25	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
AS 318 Alaska	PDX 10:48	BUR 13:11	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 1386 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	BUR 17:13	18%	4%	1.1%	87%
AS 559 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:57	BUR 20:18	19%	5%	1.1%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON