Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2873 American	PDX 23:14	CLT 07:10	20%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 07:13 → CLT 10:42DL 1912	7h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	8h 07m	99%	79%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	7h 02m	97%	79%
United Details →	PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780	1h 09m Houston	IAH 07:25 → CLT 11:02UA 3988 · flown by Mesa	7h 54m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:19DL 539	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	9h 21m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 59m	93%	76%
American Details →	PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 10:00 → CLT 17:15AA 665	8h 55m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	8h 44m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PDX 12:09 → DFW 17:59AA 2655	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → CLT 22:21AA 3002	7h 12m	59%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON