Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 868 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 868 PDX 05:30 → DEN 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3334 PDX 14:40 → DEN 18:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 868 Southwest	PDX 05:30	DEN 09:00	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	4%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:25	7%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 4391 Southwest	PDX 09:00	DEN 12:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1429 United	PDX 10:41	DEN 14:37	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2334 United Flight history →	PDX 18:50	DEN 22:29	16%	6%	0.8%	90%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:49	DEN 14:19	17%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	20%	8%	0.9%	88%
WN 3664 Southwest	PDX 12:10	DEN 15:42	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	23%	10%	0.9%	85%
AS 1317 Alaska	PDX 18:03	DEN 21:35	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
F9 1790 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:20	DEN 16:03	27%	8%	1.0%	82%
WN 3822 Southwest	PDX 17:45	DEN 21:18	30%	13%	0.7%	no record
OO 3145 SkyWest	PDX 14:32	DEN 18:11	30%	12%	1.1%	no record
WN 3334 Southwest	PDX 14:40	DEN 18:14	33%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON