Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 982 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 982 PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2496 PDX 14:06 → DFW 19:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 05:07	DFW 10:57	9%	5%	1.3%	83%
AS 539 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	DFW 12:43	10%	4%	1.0%	94%
AA 371 American Flight history →	PDX 06:53	DFW 12:42	11%	6%	1.3%	85%
AA 1132 American	PDX 08:00	DFW 13:49	15%	7%	1.3%	no record
AS 392 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	DFW 16:42	16%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PDX 12:09	DFW 17:59	26%	10%	1.1%	76%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:06	DFW 19:55	30%	10%	1.1%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 01m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	5h 31m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON