tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 07:19, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1325 Delta PDX 23:12 DTW 06:29 14% 4% 0.9% no record
DL 1327 Delta PDX 11:59 DTW 19:14 15% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433 8h 09m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 3h 29m Houston IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa 10h 34m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519 6h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236 6h 27m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:26UA 1915 6h 26m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Seattle SEA 14:30 → DTW 21:49DL 533 8h 01m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Seattle SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 8h 34m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 3h 25m Seattle SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33AS 313 8h 33m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 12:09 → DFW 17:59AA 2655 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108 7h 27m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON