Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:09, is the safest bet: 9% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 13% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


SY 3037 Sun Country	PDX 04:57	FAI 07:48	14%	3%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	3h 25m Anchorage	ANC 16:47 → FAI 18:00AS 1722	8h 30m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	PDX 17:49 → ANC 20:37AS 1455	2h 02m Anchorage	ANC 22:39 → FAI 23:51AS 362	7h 02m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	7h 40m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → FAI 12:46AS 441	7h 27m	99%	69%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:07AS 376	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 12:00 → FAI 14:45AS 96	7h 36m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:07AS 376	48m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → FAI 12:46AS 441	5h 37m	13%	9%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON