tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 3024 at 18:58, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3024 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 18:58 FAT 20:56 17% 7% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → FAT 12:29AA 2396 7h 09m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:25UA 2375 3h 20m Denver DEN 15:45 → FAT 17:41UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 8h 51m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:07AS 376 1h 44m Seattle SEA 10:51 → FAT 13:04AS 384 4h 55m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:27 → FAT 13:52AA 1329 8h 45m 96% 66%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 1h 35m Seattle SEA 16:18 → FAT 18:32AS 383 4h 44m 98% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON