Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 880 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 880 PDX 08:04 → HNL 11:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 841 PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 880 Alaska	PDX 08:04	HNL 11:04	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 813 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	HNL 13:28	29%	7%	1.2%	60%
AS 841 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:32	HNL 20:24	30%	7%	1.3%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	PDX 07:32 → KOA 10:37AS 252	1h 11m Kailua/Kona	KOA 11:48 → HNL 12:50AS 1077	8h 18m	93%	76%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 08:59 → HNL 12:05AS 853	8h 46m	98%	62%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:05AS 376	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 10:07 → HNL 13:12AS 626	8h 04m	77%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON