tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2016 United Flight history → PDX 08:18 IAD 16:08 11% 3% 0.7% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 49m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:54UA 2087 7h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 1h 04m Houston IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 8h 20m 90% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 08:07 → IAD 16:08UA 599 7h 53m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 10h 20m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 3h 20m Seattle SEA 09:13 → IAD 17:11AS 737 9h 11m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:55UA 2818 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 12:54 → IAD 21:22UA 755 11h 22m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41UA 2615 54m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:55 +1UA 2837 8h 28m 71% 53%
AmericanDetails → PDX 14:06 → DFW 19:55AA 2496 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:53 → IAD 00:49 +1AA 2254 7h 43m 68% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON