Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 462 PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1927 PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 462 United Flight history →	PDX 07:13	IAH 13:30	10%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 780 United Flight history →	PDX 00:08	IAH 06:03	11%	4%	1.0%	76%
AS 1420 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:05	IAH 13:35	11%	3%	0.9%	84%
UA 1927 United Flight history →	PDX 13:02	IAH 19:21	18%	7%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:29 → IAH 13:31DL 1532	5h 46m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 08m	93%	69%
American Details →	PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:56 → IAH 13:11AA 1397	6h 04m	90%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON