tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 252 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:32 KOA 10:37 13% 3% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 8h 25m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 14:54UA 751 3h 58m San Francisco SFO 18:52 → KOA 21:41UA 1723 11h 42m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 11h 24m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 44m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 2h 58m Honolulu HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:12AS 1148 9h 42m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:08 → SAN 09:40AS 577 1h 57m San Diego SAN 11:37 → KOA 14:23AS 222 10h 15m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 46m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 9h 47m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 12:23 → SEA 13:34DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest 56m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 8h 12m 73% 55%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:05AS 376 54m Seattle SEA 09:59 → KOA 13:08AS 709 8h 00m 62% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON