Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2130 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2130 PDX 06:10 → LAS 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 391 PDX 16:20 → LAS 18:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2130 Southwest	PDX 06:10	LAS 08:25	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1467 Alaska	PDX 07:33	LAS 09:47	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1337 Alaska	PDX 09:04	LAS 11:17	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	17%	4%	0.7%	85%
AS 751 Alaska	PDX 12:36	LAS 14:51	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2023 Southwest	PDX 10:55	LAS 13:10	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 774 Alaska	PDX 20:55	LAS 23:10	24%	8%	0.8%	no record
F9 1106 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 12:14	LAS 14:37	24%	7%	1.9%	71%
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:46	LAS 17:06	25%	7%	0.7%	84%
WN 3174 Southwest	PDX 22:15	LAS 00:35	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 531 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	LAS 20:12	26%	8%	0.7%	84%
WN 391 Southwest	PDX 16:20	LAS 18:36	32%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON