Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2947 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2947 PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1458 PDX 21:31 → LAX 23:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2947 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:30	LAX 09:00	7%	4%	0.8%	94%
AS 581 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:37	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 6290 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:42	11%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	PDX 10:53	LAX 13:18	12%	5%	0.7%	90%
AS 695 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:48	LAX 13:23	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:25	LAX 15:47	15%	6%	0.7%	91%
F9 4500 Frontier Flight history →	PDX 11:06	LAX 13:41	15%	6%	1.2%	84%
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	PDX 20:30	LAX 23:00	18%	8%	0.8%	89%
AS 713 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:39	LAX 17:06	19%	6%	0.7%	86%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	21%	8%	0.8%	88%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	22%	7%	0.8%	87%
AS 481 Alaska	PDX 17:18	LAX 19:45	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 1458 Alaska	PDX 21:31	LAX 23:59	28%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON