tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 902 Alaska PDX 08:13 LIH 11:32 13% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 08:35 → LIH 11:30UA 1111 9h 15m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 14:54UA 751 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 9h 43m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 3h 47m Honolulu HNL 17:15 → LIH 18:09AS 1143 10h 39m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 48m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 11h 10m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 3h 20m Phoenix PHX 11:20 → LIH 15:22AA 697 13h 02m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:05AS 376 2h 23m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 9h 32m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841 57m Honolulu HNL 21:21 → LIH 22:15AS 1183 7h 43m 67% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON