tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 225 at 11:55, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 225 Alaska PDX 11:55 MCI 17:19 15% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 12m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 12m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 97% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 55m Seattle SEA 07:48 → MCI 13:21AS 418 6h 21m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 1h 48m Houston IAH 08:04 → MCI 10:23UA 2009 8h 15m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:18 → IAD 16:08UA 2016 2h 01m Dulles IAD 18:09 → MCI 20:02UA 1165 9h 44m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 06:55 → MCI 08:33DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor 6h 00m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 1h 05m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 34m 90% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21UA 1927 51m Houston IAH 20:12 → MCI 22:12UA 1589 7h 10m 75% 49%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00DL 2256 5h 30m 65% 46%
UnitedDetails → PDX 16:15 → DEN 19:51UA 1787 49m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 5h 10m 57% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON