tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 00:08, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 300 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:00 MCO 15:49 14% 4% 1.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 10h 07m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 56m San Francisco SFO 08:57 → MCO 17:30UA 583 9h 15m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 1h 04m Houston IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245 7h 43m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 39m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 8h 04m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 10h 14m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Seattle SEA 08:51 → MCO 17:35DL 328 9h 05m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 46m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:10 → SEA 08:06AS 427 53m Seattle SEA 08:59 → MCO 17:24AS 346 7h 14m 68% 46%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 56m Seattle SEA 21:29 → MCO 05:52 +1AS 390 7h 14m 51% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON