Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3314 at 10:59, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3314 SkyWest	PDX 10:59	MSO 13:34	14%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 38m	98%	82%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:24 → MSO 13:36UA 2357	7h 36m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:49 → MSO 00:24 +1DL 1824	6h 10m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:07AS 376	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:35AS 660	5h 26m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	PDX 15:00 → MSP 20:22DL 1661	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	7h 44m	93%	64%
United Details →	PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:55UA 2818	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	7h 38m	99%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON