Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3891 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3891 PDX 06:00 → OAK 07:55 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3825 PDX 21:20 → OAK 23:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3891 Southwest	PDX 06:00	OAK 07:55	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3825 Southwest	PDX 21:20	OAK 23:16	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%
AS 2036 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 19:54	OAK 21:41	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON