tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 889 Alaska PDX 07:06 OGG 10:04 15% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 353 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:45 OGG 20:40 23% 5% 0.7% 89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 30m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 10h 08m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:32 → KOA 10:37AS 252 2h 14m Kailua/Kona KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149 8h 56m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 2h 37m Honolulu HNL 16:05 → OGG 16:58AS 1436 9h 28m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 12h 12m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 14:54UA 751 1h 46m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 9h 18m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 23m 100% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON