tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 534 at 21:34, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 534 Alaska PDX 21:34 ONT 00:05 19% 6% 0.9% no record
AS 2093 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 14:30 ONT 16:52 8% 2% 0.0% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 31m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 37m Seattle SEA 07:30 → ONT 10:08AS 476 5h 08m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon 1h 42m Boise BOI 14:31 → ONT 15:38AS 2025 · flown by Horizon 5h 08m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Seattle SEA 08:25 → ONT 11:17DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 6h 46m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Seattle SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52DL 3884 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 19:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1238 46m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 4h 28m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON