Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3329 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3329 PDX 05:55 → ORD 11:58 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1713 PDX 11:42 → ORD 17:46 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3329 American Flight history →	PDX 05:55	ORD 11:58	10%	6%	0.9%	89%
UA 2306 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	11%	5%	0.8%	91%
AS 324 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	17%	5%	1.0%	74%
UA 2094 United Flight history →	PDX 22:40	ORD 04:45	18%	8%	0.9%	90%
UA 2822 United	PDX 08:23	ORD 14:20	20%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 1818 American	PDX 23:04	ORD 05:11	21%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 1923 United	PDX 10:41	ORD 16:58	30%	16%	1.1%	no record
UA 2266 United	PDX 14:24	ORD 20:37	35%	18%	1.0%	no record
AA 1713 American	PDX 11:42	ORD 17:46	37%	18%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON