Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2126 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:52	PAE 11:53	10%	0%	0.0%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 11:19 → PAE 14:23AS 731	7h 23m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	1h 37m Santa Ana	SNA 18:56 → PAE 21:40AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	6h 52m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:28 → PHX 17:09AS 716	2h 08m Phoenix	PHX 19:17 → PAE 22:20AS 514	7h 52m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:48 → LAX 13:23AS 695	2h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 15:53 → PAE 18:36AS 2279 · flown by Horizon	7h 48m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 20:07 → PAE 22:12AS 2083 · flown by Horizon	7h 23m	99%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON